The deterministic track is also not suited to convey forecast uncertainty. Basing your hurricane response plan on one forecast is risky, especially if the forecast is made to the public about a wide region. As can be seen from the model runs posted earlier in the article, this deterministic track changes as the storm progresses and new data is considered. The meteorologists evaluate multiple models and develop a deterministic track that represents the most likely track and intensity of the storm. StormGeo is the only private weather company to issue its own tropical forecasts. See how the models differed widely on where Irma would make its northward turn toward Florida: These model maps should not be used to make preparedness decisions as they do not factor in the experience of a meteorologist, the quality and design of the model, or the uncertainty of the forecast. The “spaghetti plots” for Irma showed many different variables for how the storm would impact the Florida coast. Meteorologists evaluate the model tracks along with other available storm data, including expertise on how the models adjust for these variables when setting their track for a storm. Each of the models is designed for a different purpose and not all should be considered when determining where a specific storm will track. There are dozens of different models with variables of input, but two of the most well-known are NOAA’s Global Forecasting System (the GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, or the European model). To determine where a storm will track, meteorologists start by looking at computer models. The timing of the curve would be crucial to determining which areas should start preparing for the worse impacts. As Irma tracked across the northeast Caribbean islands, meteorologists saw indications that the storm could curve northward aiming the storm toward Florida. Model GuidanceĮarly in Irma’s lifecycle, StormGeo meteorologists were seeing indications that Irma could become a major hurricane, although the forecast confidence was low as the storm was still early in its track. Irma made landfall in seven different locations along five different Caribbean islands and along different locations in Florida. Hurricane Irmawas a powerful Category 5 hurricane that caused widespread damage across the Caribbean and Florida in September 2017. Read the Lessons Learned from Barry, Harvey, Ida, Irma and Laura. By understanding the past, we can become better equipped to understand the future. This process helps refine your organization's decision-making processes and how you respond to future threats.Įven if your organization wasn't directly impacted by a specific hurricane, there are still lessons to be learned. One best practice of hurricane preparedness is to evaluate how your response plan performed during previous hurricanes and tropical storms. UPDATE Thursday 09/07 10:30 UTC Helicopters and then planes will be able to in the next hours at Grand Case Airport, French north part of Sint Maarten Island.įirst Aerial footage of Princess Juliana Airport in Saint Martin, shot by Dutch Navy NH-90.Preparing for the Future by Understanding the Past.UPDATE Thursday 09/07 11:30 UTC This is how world famous #avgeek Maho beach looks after hurricane #Irma.UPDATE Thursday 09/07 19:00 UTC Hurricane # Jose is now a category 2.UPDATE Thursday 09/07 19:29 UTC Confirming our informations, a French Air Force CN235 took off from Guadeloupe to land at Grand Case Airport, French part of Sint Maarten. UPDATE Friday 09/08 08:58 UTC Sint Maarten Princess Juliana Airport ‘reopen for military use’.UPDATE Sunday 09/10 06:12 Hurricane # Irma resurges to Category 4 as it moves away from Cuba and toward the Florida Keys.UPDATE Sunday 09/10 20:04 Naples Municipal Airport, Florida is reporting sustained wind gust to 115 mph-185 km/h.UPDATE Sunday 09/10 20:10 Naples Municipal Airport, Florida is reporting sustained wind gust to 131 mph-210 km/h.UPDATE Monday 09/11 09:11 Hurricane #Irma expected to weaken to a tropical storm by Monday morning and a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon.UPDATE Monday 09/11 19:28 Charleston SC Airport reported wind gusts of 59 mph – 94 km/h.
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